Ratings Calculation.jpgASPCC Ratings

Donald R. Cotton

 

Ratings Report for KK294 -- Alphabetical Order

 

All players with established ratings (1 game against opponents with established ratings) and current membership.  An initial rating was assigned to Charles Carter (congratulations!). All players with provisional ratings (0-9 games against opponents with
established ratings) and current membership.

Anderson, Lawrence D 1437
Austin, John H. 1670
Avena, Carlos 1979
Barrett, John 1396
Barry, Robert F 2249
Bates, Michael W. 2545
Belter, Ralph 2211
Benjamin, James M 1278
Best, Herbert E 1610
Borne, Lawrence 1653
Brotze, Robert J 1654
Brown, James R. 1439
Bruner, David 1782
Buschmann, Andrew 1700
Carter, Charles 1690
Carter, Maurice 1883
Chabassol, Wade E. 1940
Chamberlin, Paul 1749
Chranowski, Charles 1697
Conner, Charles 1666
Conti, Frank P. 1718
Cotten, Donald R. 2291
Covington, M. Paul 1807
Daffin, Charles H. 1901
De Baene, Jean-Paul 2215
Dippel, Jim 1517
Donaghy, G. R1799
Dostal, Don J. 1691
Evans, Stanley 1767
Ezzell, Johnny 1354
Fadigan, Joseph 1571
Fawcett, John L. 1273
Fisher, Harry 1702
Floyd, Jesse 1761
Gibson, Jeffry R. 1563
Hansen, Christopher 2261
Hecht, Simon W. 2124
Henock, Roy 1854
Hernandez, Jesus 1902
Hernandez, Julian A 1891
Hill, Beamon B. 2167
Hobson, Nathaniel D. 1475
Jirousek, Jim 1826
Johnson, Lowell E 1797
Kappel, Ray D. 1700
Kares Danny 1636
Kay, Richard 1650
King, Z. L. 1687
Lane, Riley 1646
Lawrence, Caesar 2254
Ledford, Steven Sr. 2350
Love, Geoffrey T. 1681
Luoma, Everett E. 1553
MacDonald, Robert A. 1539
Marshall, Michael J 2236

Martin, George H. 1579
Mathiopoulos, Alexander 1822
McDaniel, Curtis W. 2265
Mercer, Larry 1886
Miettinen, Kristo 2392
Miller, Patrick A. 1314
Moenich, Neal W 1475
Moore, Bobby Jr. 2309
Moore, David 1997
Mulford, Michael A. 2123
Myers, Matthew 1801
Ng, Willy C. 1849
Nolan, Dorothy 1612
O'Keefe, Michael J. 2274
Ovall, Larry 2098
Paine, Stephen W. 1838
Papowitz, Eugene 1714
Peter, George Jr. 1812
Plonas, Kerry 1974
Quirk, Michael P 2308
Rodriguez, Juan 1883
Rosenheim, Harold 1324
Royer, Dale 1875
Sasseen, John 1535
Schoolcraft, Daniel 1790
Scott, Herman B. 1888
Sedlmayer, Walter 1684
Shearer, Robert E. 1613
Sikes, Haskel E. 2020
Singleton, Manuel M 1735
Slater, Robert W. 1935
Slechta, David J. 1797
Smiley, William R. 1659
Spooner, Frank R. Sr. 1677
Stephen, Walter 1813
Storr, William R. 1921
Strunk, Larry 1489
Terry, David R. 1555
Thomas, Gerald 2344
Vanderbeek, Charles G. 1763
Waddell, Thomas 1701
Walker, John G. 1941
Waibel, Klaus 1936
Ware, Michael 1748
Wyatt, Norman W. 1739

Bautista, Eric 1450
Burwell Nicholas 1600
Chappell, Alan 1600
Frank, Reginald 1600
Gast, Levi 1400
Groleau, James 1600
Hawks, Robby 1800
Issawi, Sami 1600
LeMar Jack 1500
Lowery, Jonah 1850
MacDermid, B. W. 1400
Molina, Carlos 1900
Ratcliff, Kenneth 1250
Sanders, Keith 1200
Swicegood, Jim 1650
Vaughan, Stan 2300
Greatest increases (+25 or more)
Ng, Willy C. +52
Evans, Stanley +41
Myers, Matthew +33
Bruner, David +32
Chabassol, Wade E +30
Jirousek, Jim +26
Editor's notes by Don Cotten
I proposed a change in the way
provisional ratings are handled and
received no objections from the Executive
Committee. Therefore, after one game a
rating shall be established with the
provisional rating as the starting rating.
The reasons are, if ratings calculators
change hand without records, it is too
difficult to find all previous games to reach
10. Second, ratings can be calculated from
the previous KK only.
If you have a provisional rating and are
not listed, please tell me in which issue of
KK and page your game was listed.
Peters-Groleau matches were apparently
over-the-board not postal and therefore not
counted according to the ruling in the
Director's column.
For those who have an internet
connection, I recommend "You will become
a chess master" by international postal and
OTB chess master Bill Richards. He gives
free lectures on chess in a narrative
manner. You may not become a chess
master, but I believe you will find these
lectures interesting.

Senior Master
2400+
Master
2200-2399
Expert
2000-2199
Class A
1800-1999
Class B
1600-1799
Class C
1400-1599
Class D
1200-1399
Class E 
0-1199

 

Overview of the rating system

                The rating system implemented for ASPCC is Arpad Elo’s system with a fixed weight per game and logistic scoring expectation function. For games played between players with established ratings, this means essentially that the game is a wager for 32 rating points, with each player contributing a portion of the 32 points to the “pot” in proportion to their odds of winning (estimated from previous ratings).  The 32 points then go to the winner (minus the winner’s contribution to the pot), while the loser loses their contribution to the pot.  In the event of a draw, each player gets 16 points, minus their contribution to the pot.  The contributions are taken out at the same time as the game is rated, i.e. there is no “pay now, win later” delay in adjusting ratings. The scoring expectation function and the contribution to the 32-point pot can be computed for each player form the following formula:

Expected score = 1/(1+exp[(his_rating-my_rating) /166.2])
Contribution = 32*expected score

The expression “exp” represents the exponentiation function, available in Excel with that name, or on any scientific calculator with the key labeled “ex”.

To take an example, suppose that player A has a rating of 1450, and player B has a rating of 1320, and they play a game.  What happens in each of the three cases (win/lose/draw)?
First, nothing happens until the game ends.  So, if the ratings of the two players change during the course of the game because of other games finishing, then it is the most recent ratings that count.  In the case of ASPCC games, all results published in any one issue of King’s Korner are rated simultaneously, using as the “previous” rating the rating list published in that same issue.  For instance, the ratings list published here in KK266 is based on the formulae above, applied to each game reported by a TS in KK265, and using the ratings list in KK265 for the ratings in the formulae (“his_rating” and “my_rating”).

So, to make the example concrete, let’s stipulate that the ratings for player A and player B in the example were published in KK265, and so was the result of their game, and neither player A nor player B had any other results published in KK265.

Then, we can calculate the expected result of their game: player A’s expected score is 0.686, while player B’s expected score is 0.314.  Each player contributes rating points to the wager in these proportions, so player A contributes 22 points, while player B contributes 10 points (for a total of 32 points).

If Player A wins, he gains 32 minus 22 points, or 10 points, and has a new rating of 1460, while player B loses 10 points and has a new rating of 1310.  On the other hand, if player B wins then he gains 32 minus 10 points, or 22 points, and has a new rating of 1342, while player A loses 22 points and has a new rating of 1428.

If the game is drawn, then player A “gains” 16 minus 22 points, i.e. he loses 6 points, and his new rating is 1444, while player B gains 16 minus 10 points, or 6 points, and has a new rating of 1326.
If, as it usually happens, a player has many results in the same issue of King’s Korner, then the gains and losses are all computed based on the previous ratings, and then all gains and losses are combined into one for the rating change from one list to the next.

In situations where a player is provisionally rated, the rating adjustment is handled differently.  The games of provisionally rated players are held in a storage file until they achieve 10 results against players with established ratings.  At that time, a pseudorating (for purposes of the formulae only) is assigned based on their score in those 10 games and the ratings of their opponents, and then those 10 games are rated using the formulae above in the ordinary way.

Thus, the first rating published for a player is neither their provisional rating assigned for tournament qualification purposes (which is never used in the rating system), nor their pseudorating based on a self-consistency calculation for their 10-game performance and their opponents’ ratings, but rather it is the result of updating the pseudorating using the ordinary ratings update formulae and the 10 (or more) games that have been held for their initial rating.